According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, China imported 1.68 million tons of wheat in April this year, an increase of 141% year-on-year. 6.03 million tons of wheat were imported from January to April, an increase of 60.9% over the same period last year. What are the reasons for the surge in wheat imports? Will it have an impact on the domestic market? How to ensure the safety of the domestic wheat industry? Is the current general concern of society.

　　"The expansion of the domestic and international wheat price difference is the main reason for the surge in wheat imports." Guangdong South China Grain Exchange researcher Zheng Wenhui said. in April, the U.S. soft red winter wheat imports to Hong Kong duty-paid price of about 2,490 yuan / ton, about 390 yuan / ton lower than the average price of domestic wheat in Guangdong port. Domestic and foreign wheat price inversion has long existed, since last year, by Australia, Canada, Russia and other major producing countries wheat production, U.S. liquidity contraction and the Black Sea port outbound agreement signed a combination of factors, international wheat prices fell sharply, down more than domestic wheat prices, domestic and foreign wheat price difference further widened. To the U.S. wheat prices, for example, the Chicago futures market wheat main contract price since September last year to establish a downward trend, has fallen from 913 cents / bushel to 606 cents / bushel, a decline of 33.5%. The domestic wheat price decline has continued from December last year to the present, falling from 3,250 yuan/ton to the current 2,700 yuan/ton (the average market price of the third class), a decline of 17%.

　　With the sharp drop in wheat prices, the spread between wheat and corn has narrowed and the demand for wheat substitution has increased. This is an important reason for the increase in wheat imports. Zheng Wenhui expects that wheat imports in the first half of the year to feed Australian wheat, the second half of the year to import mainly high gluten wheat. According to customs data, in the first four months of this year, 3.6 million tons of wheat imports from Australia, 1.1 million tons of wheat imports from Canada, 770,000 tons of wheat imports from France, 475,000 tons of wheat imports from the United States. Compared with other countries, Australian wheat transportation costs are relatively cheap, cost-effective procurement, the largest share of imports. According to some enterprises, last year's imports of wheat has not been fully digested, it is expected that this year's annual wheat imports will not be too much higher than last year.

　　China is a global wheat production and consumption of large countries, but not wheat production powerhouse. Wheat harvest for several years, the stock is sufficient to achieve full self-sufficiency, but the supply of high-end quality wheat is insufficient. Imported wheat mainly to meet the demand for high-quality wheat varieties transfer, a small part of the flow into the feed sector. 2020 since, China's wheat imports increased significantly compared to previous years, 2021, 2022, wheat imports for two consecutive years exceeded the import quota of 9.636 million tons. It is understood that, due to the purity of imported wheat varieties, wheat stability and other indicators better than domestic quality wheat, some flour mills in the south have formed a certain habit of demand for imported wheat.

　　"The increase in wheat imports has little impact on the domestic market, but will play a role in boosting domestic wheat prices up and down." Zheng Wenhui believes that the domestic wheat prices fell, mainly operating entities before to deal with a variety of uncertainties at home and abroad and the increased demand for holding food faded, resulting in the market food sources everywhere feel "more", which in turn made the main body formed an increasingly consistent bearish expectations, further accelerating the decline. Some companies' stocks fell from a maximum of 3 months during the epidemic to 1 month, while traders' willingness to purchase was low, mostly hoping to cut out of storage and consumers' willingness to hoard grain declined. With the combination of various factors, domestic wheat prices retraced sharply this year, down about 550 yuan/ton, after a cumulative increase of 1,000 yuan/ton over the past three years. Under the general trend of downward wheat prices, wheat imports increased, adding another bearish reason to the market and serving to accelerate the decline.

　　It is worth noting that the ratio of wheat imports to production in China has been significantly increased, coupled with the increasing flexibility of wheat feeding substitution, the proportion of imports of coarse grains such as corn is also increasing, the correlation between domestic and international wheat prices will be greatly enhanced, the impact of the international market on the domestic market will increase. Zheng Wenhui believes that in order to ensure the security of the domestic wheat industry, to strengthen macro-control, continue to implement the wheat import quota management policy, to avoid the impact of low-priced wheat imports in large quantities on the domestic market. Strengthen the international wheat market monitoring and early warning, pay close attention to the wheat production and trade policies of major wheat exporting countries, to prevent price fluctuations in the international market to the domestic wheat imports brought about by the adverse impact. To promote diversification of sources of wheat imports, to avoid excessive concentration of sources of wheat imports brought about by import security risks.

　　Improve the international competitiveness of wheat, is the key to deal with the impact of low-priced imported wheat, to maintain the security of the domestic wheat industry. Zheng Wenhui believes that, in view of the current production in China is facing the double constraints of resources and environment, the high cost of growing food, farmers are not high motivation to grow food and other unfavorable factors, we must increase policy support to fully mobilize farmers and the main production areas to develop the enthusiasm of wheat production, to ensure a steady increase in wheat sown area, and strive to increase wheat production; accelerate the construction of high-standard farmland, improve the scale of wheat, intensive, mechanized level, to achieve Reduce costs and increase efficiency; implement the strategy of hiding food in technology and seed industry revitalization action, cultivate high-quality high-yielding wheat, develop the production of strong and weak tendon high-quality special wheat, to meet the domestic demand for high-quality wheat consumption.