"The first two months of export orders to maintain a steady growth in the state, Southeast Asia, Australia, Africa is the export order volume of more regions." March 22, a steel foreign trade businessman in Tianjin to the "Securities Daily" reporter, this year, because of national policy support, steel exports business environment is getting better and better, coupled with the continued downward movement of shipping prices this year, creating better conditions for steel exports, steel exports have maintained a growth trend.

　　In fact, the growth momentum of China's steel exports at the beginning of the year has shown. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the first two months of this year, the national steel exports of 12.19 million tons, an increase of 49%.

　　A number of industry insiders believe that the international steel supply tension, price increases, China's steel price advantage is highlighted, is the main factor supporting the steel export boom.

　　Overseas steel production decline is large domestic and foreign price difference widened

　　In the Lange Steel Research Center director Wang Guoqing, in the past three months, overseas and Chinese hot roll export prices continue to rise, but because of the relatively low rate of increase in China's export quotes, so China's steel export price advantage is obvious.

　　The person in charge of a listed A-share steel company told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "so far this year, steel export orders are indeed a lot more than last year. On the one hand, in the case of domestic steel prices continue to fall, appropriate more exports, which is conducive to balancing the price difference between domestic and foreign markets; on the other hand, to seize the international market, to maintain international competitiveness."

　　To hot rolled coil category, for example, Lange Steel Research Center monitoring data show that as of March 22, 2023, China, India, Turkey, hot rolled coil export quotes (FOB) than the same period last year have risen, up 65 U.S. dollars / ton to 150 U.S. dollars / ton. However, China's hot rolled coil export offers were lower than those of the above-mentioned export regions by around US$65 to US$165 per tonne.

　　Shandong Guanzhou Co., Ltd. is a company that mainly exports color coated plates, galvanized plates, aluminized zinc plates, cold rolled plates and other related products to Russia, the Middle East, South America, Australia, etc. The company's foreign trade department director Xu Qingdong told the Securities Daily: "Since this year, we have undertaken relatively more export orders, especially in February orders grew more, export The destination is concentrated in the Middle East."

　　He further said that February export orders are more concentrated in the Middle East because, first, domestic steel prices at that time there was a wave of retracement, at that time the purchase price is relatively reasonable; Second, the earthquake in Turkey so that the local steel enterprises supply capacity is affected to a certain extent, indirectly stimulate our steel export orders; Third, because of the Ramadan holiday factor, some buyers will choose to focus on procurement in February.

　　Wang Guoqing explained that, from the international steel supply situation, the current overseas steel production drop is large, the international steel market showed a decline in supply, the gap was made up by China.

　　Lange Steel Research Center monitoring data show that in January this year, other than China's global production of 65.8 million tons, down 10.2% year-on-year. Among them, the EU (27 countries) crude steel production fell by 15.2% year-on-year, and other European countries fell by 17.5% year-on-year. In addition, crude steel production in Russia and the CIS countries and Ukraine fell by 24.9% year-on-year.

　　In contrast, steel production in China has recovered significantly, with crude steel production from January to February this year at 168.7 million tonnes, up 5.6% year-on-year.

　　Export growth momentum or will continue until May

　　"China's steel exports have been 10 consecutive months to maintain the year-on-year growth trend. At present, China's steel export price advantage gradually increased, in overseas steel supply is still weak, China's steel export order index is rebounding." Wang Guoqing said so.

　　China Iron and Steel Logistics Professional Committee survey data show that in February this year, the steel enterprise new export order index increased by 2.3 percentage points to 49.8%; Lange steel network research data show that the steel circulation enterprise new export order index increased by 3.4 percentage points to 51.5%.

　　The steel export boom also drove the corresponding route freight rate to stop rising. Shanghai Shipping Exchange data show that on March 17, Shanghai to Europe 20-foot container tariff for 878 U.S. dollars, up 1.5% week-on-week; Shanghai to the Mediterranean 20-foot container tariff for 1651 U.S. dollars, up 3.9% week-on-week, are the first time since this year rose. Meanwhile, Shanghai-Singapore 20-foot container rates rebounded to US$190, having risen for three consecutive weeks.

　　Mao Lin, an analyst with the steel business group of Shanghai Steel Union, believes that this is partly due to the low export volume last year (lower than in previous years) and the fact that overseas prices rose more than domestic prices at the end of December, which promoted steel companies to take orders for exports, resulting in a 49% year-on-year increase in export orders in the first two months of this year. The year-on-year increase was about 10%, mainly for the February sailing export release.

　　Such a hot steel export momentum can be sustained? Wang Guoqing is expected, late China's steel exports are expected to maintain a high level of 5 million tons to 6 million tons or so, so March, April steel exports will still maintain the year-on-year growth trend, but due to the same period last year after May base high, maintaining year-on-year growth is difficult.

　　Mao Lin also said, after the Spring Festival, China's steel exports continue to receive good orders, the beginning of March most steel mills have entered the May shipping schedule. Expected in March, April exports will be further growth than in February, from the current level of orders received, May shipments of exports will maintain a high level, is expected to steel export growth momentum will continue to May.

　　However, in Xu Qingdong's view, "At present, the domestic hot coil prices have reached a high level, it is difficult to continue to break upwards. In addition, with the gradual recovery of steel supply in areas such as Turkey, as well as to June in Southeast Asia by the rainy season, overseas steel demand weakened, the second quarter steel exports may face some pressure."